Description: In an era of uncertainty, how to predict? How to make a decision? This book was selected as the best business book by the Financial Times and McKinsey in 2020. If the future trend can be predicted, can accurate decisions be made? Bill Gates once warned of the threat of infectious diseases, and no one paid any attention to it; the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has caused chaos in the global decision-making circle. Several fund managers foresee the subprime mortgage storm, and the market is still optimistic; the 2007-08 crisis hit and many financial institutions closed down, causing economic recession.
