Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise

Description:

This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

Brief description: Christoph Meyer is a Professor of European and International Politics at King's College London. He authored with De Franco and Otto Warning about War: Conflict, Persuasion and Foreign Policy (Cambridge University Press, 2020), which won the 2021 ISA best book award.

Review Quotes:

This book, alongside the extensive research that underpins it, offers an array of noteworthy contributions that deserve attention. [...] In summary, Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policy provides a balanced and multifaceted perspective, making it a valuable resource for scholars, practitioners, and researchers interested in the intricate world of intelligence and its interplay with foreign policy.