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International Finance Discussion Papers: Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance

Contributor(s): United States Federal Reserve Board (Created by), Et Al (Created by), Kumhof, Michael (Author)

ISBN: 9781288727124

Publisher: Bibliogov

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Pub Date: February 8, 2013

Lexile Code: 0000

Target Age Group: NA to NA

Physical Info: 0.07" H x 9.69" L x 7.44" W ( 0.18 lbs) 36 pages

BISAC Categories:

Political Science | General

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Description: This paper asks whether an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation is feasible in countries that suffer from fiscal dominance, as long as monetary policy also responds to fiscal variables. We find that if nominal interest rates are allowed to respond to government debt, even aggressive rules that satisfy the Taylor principle can produce unique equilibria. But following such rules results in extremely volatile inflation. This leads to very frequent violations of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates that make such rules infeasible. Even within the set of feasible rules the optimal response to inflation is highly negative, and more aggressive inflation fighting is inferior from a welfare point of view. The welfare gain from responding to fiscal variables is minimal compared to the gain from eliminating fiscal dominance.

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