Description: This book is based on two Sir Richard Stone lectures at the Bank of England and the National Institute for Economic and Social Research. Largely non-technical, the first part of the book covers some of the broader issues involved in Stone's and others' work in statistics. It explores the more philosophical issues attached to statistics, econometrics and forecasting and describes the paradigm shift back to the Bayesian approach to scientific inference. The first part concludes with simple examples from the different worlds of educational management and golf clubs. The second, more technical part covers in detail the structural econometric time series analysis (SEMTSA) approach to statistical and econometric modeling.
Brief description: Arnold Zellner is H. G. B. Alexander Distinguished Service Professor Emeritus of Economics and Statistics at the University of Chicago, and adjunct Professor at the University of California at Berkeley. He is one of the most important figures in the development of econometrics, in particular the use of Bayesian technique. He is co-founder of the Journal of Econometrics, and remains an active researcher in modeling, statistics and forecasting.
Review Quotes: "I found it a stimulating book. It offers valuable insights on Arnold Zellner's approach to 'good' research, demonstrating how productive and novative research may emerge. Also entertaining were the various anecdotes." - Markus Leippold, University of Ziurich